The
race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet
bread to the wise, nor yet midterms to men of understanding. Or as I put it on the eve
of another Republican Party sweep, politics determines who has the
power, not who has the truth. Still, it’s not often that a party that is
so wrong about so much does as well as Republicans did on Tuesday.
I’ll
talk in a bit about some of the reasons that may have happened. But
it’s important, first, to point out that the midterm results are no
reason to think better of the Republican position on major issues. I
suspect that some pundits will shade their analysis to reflect the new
balance of power — for example, by once again pretending that
Representative Paul Ryan’s budget proposals are good-faith attempts to
put America’s fiscal house in order, rather than exercises in deception
and double-talk. But Republican policy proposals deserve more critical
scrutiny, not less, now that the party has more ability to impose its
agenda.
So now is a good time to remember just how wrong the new rulers of Congress have been about, well, everything.
First,
there’s economic policy. According to conservative dogma, which
denounces any regulation of the sacred pursuit of profit, the financial
crisis of 2008 — brought on by runaway financial institutions —
shouldn’t have been possible. But Republicans chose not to rethink their
views even slightly. They invented an imaginary history
in which the government was somehow responsible for the
irresponsibility of private lenders, while fighting any and all policies
that might limit the damage. In 2009, when an ailing economy
desperately needed aid, John Boehner, soon to become the speaker of the
House, declared: “It’s time for government to tighten their belts.”
So
here we are, with years of experience to examine, and the lessons of
that experience couldn’t be clearer. Predictions that deficit spending
would lead to soaring interest rates, that easy money would lead to
runaway inflation and debase the dollar, have been wrong again and
again. Governments that did what Mr. Boehner urged,
slashing spending in the face of depressed economies, have presided
over Depression-level economic slumps. And the attempts of Republican
governors to prove that cutting taxes on the wealthy is a magic growth elixir have failed with flying colors.
In
short, the story of conservative economics these past six years and
more has been one of intellectual debacle — made worse by the striking inability of many on the right to admit error under any circumstances.
Then there’s health reform, where Republicans were very clear about what was supposed to happen:
minimal enrollments, more people losing insurance than gaining it,
soaring costs. Reality, so far, has begged to differ, delivering
above-predicted sign-ups, a sharp drop in the number of Americans
without health insurance, premiums well below expectations, and a sharp
slowdown in overall health spending.
And
we shouldn’t forget the most important wrongness of all, on climate
change. As late as 2008, some Republicans were willing to admit that the
problem is real, and even advocate serious policies to limit emissions —
Senator John McCain proposed a cap-and-trade system similar to Democratic proposals.
But these days the party is dominated by climate denialists, and to
some extent by conspiracy theorists who insist that the whole issue is a
hoax concocted by a cabal of left-wing scientists. Now these people
will be in a position to block action for years to come, quite possibly
pushing us past the point of no return.
But if Republicans have been so completely wrong about everything, why did voters give them such a big victory?
Part
of the answer is that leading Republicans managed to mask their true
positions. Perhaps most notably, Senator Mitch McConnell, the incoming
majority leader, managed to convey the completely false impression that Kentucky could retain its impressive gains in health coverage even if Obamacare were repealed.
But
the biggest secret of the Republican triumph surely lies in the
discovery that obstructionism bordering on sabotage is a winning
political strategy. From Day 1 of the Obama administration, Mr.
McConnell and his colleagues have done everything they could to
undermine effective policy, in particular blocking every effort to do
the obvious thing — boost infrastructure spending — in a time of low
interest rates and high unemployment.
This
was, it turned out, bad for America but good for Republicans. Most
voters don’t know much about policy details, nor do they understand the
legislative process. So all they saw was that the man in the White House
wasn’t delivering prosperity — and they punished his party.
Will things change now that the G.O.P. can’t so easily evade responsibility? I guess we’ll find out.
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