On Sunday, Donald Trump went on TV and told Americans that their children should make do with less. “They don’t need to have 30 dolls; they can have three,” the president said on Meet the Press. “They don’t need to have 250 pencils; they can have five.” Critics were quick to point out the irony of America’s avatar of excess telling others to tighten their belt. But the problem with Trump’s remark goes beyond the optics. It’s that his argument for austerity contradicts his campaign commitments—and exposes the limits of his transactional approach to politics.

Throughout his 2024 run, the president promised Americans a return to the prosperity of his pre-COVID first term. “Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again, to bring down the prices of all goods,” he told a Montana rally in August. “They’ll come down, and they’ll come down fast,” he declared days later in North Carolina. But at the same time, Trump also promised to impose steep tariffs on consumer goods—dubbing tariff one of “the most beautiful words I’ve ever heard”—even though the levies would effectively serve as a tax on everyday Americans.

These two pledges could not be reconciled, and once elected, Trump was forced to choose between them. The results have disillusioned many of those who voted for him. Trump’s approval on the economy has plunged since he announced his “Liberation Day.” A former strength has become a weakness. “If you look at his economic net approval rating in his first term, it was consistently above water,” the CNN analyst Harry Enten noted last month. “It was one of his best issues, and now it’s one of his worst issues.”

Trump does not face this problem on just the economy. On issue after issue, whether domestic policy or foreign affairs, the president made incompatible assurances to rival camps on the campaign trail—to business bigwigs and working-class factory hands, anti-war isolationists and anti-Iran hawks. Now that Trump is in office, the bill for these guarantees is coming due, and he is making decisions that will inevitably alienate one of his constituencies. Some of the supporters who are not getting what they were promised are beginning to feel ripped off, putting the coalition that propelled Trump to his narrow popular-vote victory in jeopardy.

Yair Rosenberg in The Atlantic