It's Nervous Time

Elections 2012 Monday, Nov 5, 2012 06:38 AM CST


Monday update: Nate Silver improves Obama’s odds again

The president's likelihood of re-election ticks even higher in the influential New York Times blog

By David Daley

President Obama’s supporters can feel 1 percent better this morning.



Influential numbers-cruncher Nate Silver pushed Obama’s chances of being re-elected up to 86.3 percent this morning on his New York Times blog fivethirtyeight. That’s up from 85.1 percent on Sunday.



It’s also the best number Obama has scored in Silver’s model — which weighs state and national polls in a complex formula that also takes into account accuracy and historical performance — since he climbed to 87 percent prior to his sleepy performance in the first debate in Denver.



Silver also added to Obama’s likely number of electoral votes on Monday. He now sees the president winning 307.2 to 230.8 for Mitt Romney, a tiny tick higher than he saw the race on Sunday.



He also sees Obama capturing the popular vote, taking 50.6 percent to Romney’s 48.5.



But where Silver gives, he also takes away. The Monday update slightly lowered the odds of Democrats retaining control of the Senate, to 91.5 percent. That’s down 1 percentage point from Sunday. Nevertheless, Silver still sees the Democrats holding at least 52 seats in the Senate.