The biggest problem for Obama, as I wrote yesterday, continues to be his basic vulnerability on the economy. There are very encouraging signs that the economy really is turning the corner, but there will probably be a lag before most voters really feel it. So Romney’s recitation of dire statistics continues to be effective, which helps explain why voters judged him the clear winner of Tuesday’s debate on the subject of the economy.
Right now, Obama seems to be in decent shape, basically tied in the national horserace but with a genuine edge in the Electoral College. But economic anxiety is still real, and if it ultimately moves one or two points worth of voters to Romney’s column, that could blow the whole thing up
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